Coffee prices: Short term and long term diverge

Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort discuss the spike in coffee prices. Despite so many factors affecting the coffee market in the last couple of years, global exports in the 12 months to August remained remarkably stable. A significant drop in Brazilian exports is being offset by increases in a number of countries, from large producers like Vietnam and Colombia to tiny Madagascar. Looking at the 2026/27 crop year, we expect a large global surplus, assuming more or less normal weather ahead, but in the short term, we expect high volatility. Brazil's arabica areas need more rainfall in the second half of October to secure a good production recovery next season, but also, certified stocks are declining, partially as an unintended consequence of US tariffs.