Prices are the silver lining as production totals fall: Australian 2023/24 winter crop forecast

Total production of winter crops in Australia is expected to fall by 24% YOY to 48.72m tonnes. While estimates indicate a 15m drop from the record-breaking 2022/23 production levels, the current season is expected to fall just below the five-year average, down 1%, and remain above the levels experienced in 2018/19 and 2019/20.

Drier conditions that have spread across to many cropping regions in the country are playing a significant role in the tighter supply outlook for Australia, with expected year-on-year falls exacerbated given the extremely strong season experienced last year. Production expectations are varied across regions, with some farmers expecting to see elevated production under current conditions, while others will be facing tough decisions on whether or not to harvest their crops.

Production of all cereal and coarse grains, including wheat, barley and oats is expected to decrease, with wheat seeing the biggest drop to 26.91m tonnes. Barley is expected to see the slightest drop of all grains and oilseeds, down 18% YOY. However, this is primarily due to the increased planted area for barley this season compared to 2022/23, while the remainder of the winter crop varieties saw reductions in planted area.

Canola production is expected to fall to 5.77m tonnes, but this total is still 20% above the five-year average, while pulses production also remains slightly higher than the five-year average, up 2%. It is important to remark that while this may look like a substantial drop, it is actually a figure close to the long-term trend.