ACMR Monthly May 2025: Bears Awake from Hibernation

The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index eased 0.6% month-to-date, led by a sharp decline in coffee prices due to increases in certified inventories. Meanwhile, the latest CFTC report marked the fourth consecutive speculator net sell across agricultural commodities, pushing the Managed Money position into net short territory for the first time since September 2024. In the key constituent product groups, speculators’ net short position in grains and oilseeds is widening while their net long position in soft commodities continues to narrow. On May 12, the US and China announced a three-month suspension of most of their recent bilateral tariff hikes. On the same day, the USDA’s WASDE report, which included the department’s first set of forecasts for the upcoming 2025/26 season, was released without causing much of a stir. However, forecasts for record corn and soybean yields in the US will keep the market interested should crop conditions shown signs of worsening.