The Mighty US Crop Markets Through 2030: Our Long-term Outlook for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

In 2023/24, corn will continue to be king when it comes to area planted, though we expect soybeans to steal the throne in the coming years in order to meet future soybean oil demand for renewable diesel.

Farmgate prices are expected to ease from 2021 to mid-2022 highs due to several factors, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, the future price trend may move higher in the coming cycles, driven primarily by new soybean crushing demand and the fight for acres.

The gradual expansion of new soybean crushing plants could represent an additional 600m+ bushels by 2026/27 if all the announced crushing facilities become operational.

In the years to come, domestic demand’s share of total use of corn, soybeans, and wheat should continue to show positive growth. Combined domestic demand for the three major crops is showing an increase when compared to exports.

Through the end of the decade, stock levels should marginally recover but remain relatively low compared to historical levels.

The US share of global export markets will likely decrease due to growing domestic demand, especially for soybeans.

At the end of the report, we also present three additional scenarios after “shocking” the baseline model with 1) below-trend soybean yields, 2) a less robust expansion of soybean crushing facilities resulting in profound impacts on price, and 3) lower-than-expected corn yields.