US foodservice and food retail: A transformational year – Q4 2024 update

Although 2024 has ended, its impact on US foodservice and retail remains. Credit and debit card data from Earnest Analytics reveal the changes in where Americans sourced their food amid increasing concerns about cost and nutrition.

Traffic at restaurant chains has slipped for the past seven quarters, pushing operators to revisit their offerings and prices. However, there are pockets of growth linked to certain menu types and fast-casual environments, as consumers are exploring new menu options and restaurant formats.

The food retail trajectory has been more linear and less surprising, with novel formats – namely discounters and wholesale clubs – gaining share over the past years. If anything, we can add that their growth has been decelerating, which may indicate a normalization of trends after turbulent transformational years. Similarly to foodservice, specialty retailers known for their natural food options (at a price premium) have succeeded in gaining the preference of consumers less impacted by inflation.