Australian almond outlook: Replanting for growth beyond 2030

The Australian almond industry is entering a pivotal transition phase. Its success will support growth beyond 2030. Over the next five years, orchard renewals will reshape the industry's orchard age profile, while expansion into new areas could lift total planted area 5,000 to 10,000 hectares by 2030. Positive global demand fundamentals and limited supply growth in California should contribute to an improving market outlook, offering opportunities for the Australian industry to grow its share of the global market.

Short-term price support from China's tariffs on US almonds has boosted Australian export revenues to record levels in 2024/25, but this concentration has heightened market exposure to trade policy volatility. Longer term, the Australian almond industry's competitiveness will depend on maintaining a competitive cost base, including a favourable exchange rate, and water availability.

Almonds remain well positioned to meet growing demand for healthy tree nuts, yet scaling production will require further strategic investment in replanting and orchard development. Sustained growth will also depend on proactive market development, coupled with innovation and marketing, to boost domestic consumption and diversify export markets.