Research

Global greenhouse update 2026

11 February 2026 20:10 RaboResearch

Governments’ growing focus on self-sufficiency, climate risks, and steady tech advances are influencing greenhouse investment patterns and crop strategies worldwide.

Intro

The global greenhouse sector continues to adjust to new challenges and long-term trends. Governments’ growing focus on self-sufficiency, ongoing climate challenges, and steady advances in technology are influencing investment patterns and crop strategies worldwide. This year’s update outlines how these developments are unfolding across regions.

Across markets, governments are placing greater emphasis on domestic production, a trend accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic and concerns about food security. As more countries seek to approach self-sufficiency in fresh vegetables, investment in greenhouse capacity is expected to rise, even while short-term growth expectations among global suppliers have become more cautious.

At the same time, crop portfolios are evolving. While tomatoes remain the backbone of protected high-tech horticulture, strawberries and leafy greens are emerging as key growth categories. Experiments and trials with alternative crops continue to expand, though commercial breakthroughs remain distant.

Structural shifts are also being driven by energy and technology. The rapid build-out of data centers could open the door to new synergies, such as using residual heat in greenhouse clusters. Meanwhile, robotization is accelerating, with picking and harvesting technologies advancing first due to their repetitive nature and strong business case.

Looking ahead, climate change stands out as a defining challenge. More extreme weather, shifting crop suitability, and rising pest and disease pressures will likely prompt investments in climate adaptation measures at plant, farm, supply chain, and country levels.

Regionally, developments are diverse:

    In North America, Canadian production is scaling up, the US is still becoming less self‑sufficient in key vegetables, and Mexico continues to strengthen its position with a broad mix of protected cultivation systems. Europe and North Africa are experiencing competitive realignments – particularly between Spain and Morocco – alongside ongoing consolidation in the Netherlands. Asia, led by China, continues to scale protected low-, mid-, and high-tech cultivation rapidly.

Overall, 2026 marks a period in which self sufficiency, the energy transition, technological adoption, and climate pressure converge, creating both challenges and new avenues for innovation and growth for the global greenhouse industry.

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Disclaimer

The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any transactions described and/or commercial ideas contained in this document. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. Read more