Climate change leads to global volatility in olive oil production and prices

Olive oil supply has become increasingly unstable over the past decade. The production rebound in the 2024/25 season has triggered a sharp correction in prices, which have dropped to EUR 3,200 per metric ton in March, from a record high of nearly EUR 9,000 per metric ton in January 2024. At the same time, the Mediterranean region faces rising temperatures, lower rainfall, greater climate variability, and more frequent extreme weather making production outcomes increasingly unpredictable. In the long term, the key challenge is not a decline in production, but rather growing volatility in production and orchards must adapt to changing conditions. Irrigation is the primary adaptation measure, making access to fresh water the key enabler of yield stability and long-term orchard viability. However, there's no one-size-fits-all solution; strategies must be tailored to local conditions and include complementary measures that could further reduce volatility.