Corona crisis
Covid-19 has a lingering impact on the global economy. Throughout the pandemic, RaboResearch has investigated the economic impact of the corona crisis around the world. How is recovery progressing and what are the long-term consequences?
United States The inevitable recession
A recession seems inevitable for the US: even if the economy is able to absorb the exogenous shocks to the supply side, the response of the central bank to the...
New Zealand: Two sides of the same coin
The economic effect of Omicron will be contained in Q1 before growth accelerates from Q2 onwards. However, higher prices and lower global growth, fuelled by the war in...
Asia: Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap
Developing economies are more vulnerable to new virus strains due to lower vaccination coverage, slower pace of vaccination and the nature of their vaccines. Global...
Australia: Weighing the Work
On the one hand, we expect high labour demand and labour market scarcity to increase the likelihood of wage growth. On the other hand, this upside potential is being...
Australia: Economic update
The Australian economy is set to contract in Q3, modestly rebounding in Q4. Inflation risk are likely, as gas and freight prices rise steeply. Australia must balance...
German elections: Green means 'Go'
The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will...
Spain: Reopening of the economy boosts the recovery
The reopening of the economy has spurred economic activity in the services sector. In Q2 GDP grew with 2.8%. The recovery is set to continue with again...
Australia: From frontrunner to laggard
The transmission of the delta variant and low vaccination rates in Australia, have turned Australia from a frontrunner into a laggard. We have revised our economic...
Eurozone economy resumes recovery in second quarter of 2021
The reopening of euro area economies has spurred economic activity. Eurozone GDP grew with 2% q/q in 2021Q2. The recovery should be sustained in the coming quarters...
Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap
Strong economic recovery by advanced economies is leading to increasing inflation expectations. Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies potentially threatens...
Germany: Better times ahead?
The German economy will recover quickly, driven by foreign- and pent-up demand. Its traditional unease with soaring prices will be tested. The September election is...
Australia: Policymakers shifting gears
The recent Australian federal budget represents a shift in budget strategy away from budget prudence towards higher spending. The combination of loose fiscal and...