Sustainability
Sustainability is a key issue for Rabobank, our clients, and society. RaboResearch investigates the relationship between the economy and the environment. What are the impacts of new regulations and legislation? What developments are taking place in the circular economy and the energy transition?
External “hawk”, Brazil “dove”
Externally, in the U.S., the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged (3.50%–3.75%), removed forward guidance, and signaled a more hawkish stance amid persistent uncertainty,
Forward guidance is gone
As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and dropped its easing bias.
Exclusive USMCA Update: Free trade abandoning the free world?
The USMCA is unlikely to be renewed for a full 16-year extension by July 1, 2026 and we instead expect it to enter a rolling one-year review period, extending uncertainty
The U.S. and Iran reached a provisional agreement
Externally, over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran reached a provisional agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and move toward ending the conflict.
Exclusive What if Ukraine joins the EU? An exploration of the impact on European food and agriculture
Ukraine’s accession will integrate a vast agricultural sector into the EU, creating both opportunities and risks for European food and agriculture.
Global Daily: Sign(s) here, here, and here
Markets have naturally embraced a US-Iran ‘deal’ now e-signed o all that’s left is a ceremony to mark the event on Friday. That and the details of what was signed.
Global Daily: Harbingers
An Iran peace deal is struck and the parties are reportedly set to sign on Friday of this week...
Rate cuts are moving further into the future
At Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair, the FOMC is likely to remove the easing bias from the statement and drop the 2026 rate cut from the dot plot.
The ECB hiked rates by 25bp. What's next?
The ECB raised the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.25%.
Exclusive 103 Days, 38 Peace Deals
We cut oil forecasts on weak China demand, see softer US gas near term but keep LNG constructive as tight supply and limited flexibility support winter prices.
Higher food prices in Europe are only a matter of time
Higher energy costs are feeding into the food chain, pointing to renewed food inflation in Europe, with the main impact expected in 2027.
Exclusive Bank of Canada Post-Decision Report: Durable consumption?
The Bank of Canada released its decision to hold the overnight policy rate at 2.25% at the June 10 decision.