Global Economics
Find economic insights and analysis on the latest geopolitical and macroeconomic developments and their local and global implications.
Exclusive Could the ECB raise the minimum reserve requirement?
The ECB is reportedly considering raising the minimum reserve requirement from 1% to 2%. This would roughly offset the additional interest costs of the June rate hike.
Global Daily: Sin(a)tra
Let’s be Frank: central bankers Sintra had a touch of Sinatra. Fed Chair Warsh belted out “I’ll do it MYYYYYY way,” and the others chimed they would do it his way too.
Exclusive Brazil agribusiness quarterly Q2 2026
Read the latest on Brazil’s key agribusiness sectors, including soy, cotton, corn, beef, coffee, orange juice, and pulp, alongside insights into the impact of US tariffs.
Between Signals and Flexibility: the Central Bank’s Communication in F
Domestically, both the Copom Minutes and the Quarterly Inflation Report (RPM) highlighted an asymmetrically upside-skewed inflation risk balance and suggested a declining
Global Daily: Still the (military) base case
Hormuz traffic is climbing, but refined product prices are lagging, and crack spreads are blowing out: one can’t just look at the oil price to understand the real dynamic
Exclusive Global poultry quarterly Q3 2026: Strong growth continues, but tighter discipline is critical as oversupply pressures build
Global poultry market growth continues, but rising oversupply, trade shifts, and cost pressures will demand tighter market discipline.
Exclusive USMCA Update: The trade jungle | Canada
A principle to keep in mind as we navigate the trade jungle is that, like a forest fire, a temporary event can leave a lasting impact on the environment.
Exclusive Banxico Post-Decision Report: Nothing to see here...
Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% at the June 25 meeting.
Cheap until it wasn’t: How abundant resin masked a fragile supply chain
Structural oversupply created dependency on low-cost, globally concentrated supply, which left the system fragile and exposed when a geopolitical shock (Hormuz) occurred.
Exclusive Banxico Preview: Soft growth, cool inflation, sticky risks
We expect Banxico to hold the overnight policy rate at 6.50% at the June 25 decision.
Global Strategy: Hormuz update: Still not plain Versaille-ing
A 14-point US-Iran MoU has reopened Hormuz earlier than expected and is now the basis for 60-days of discussions - but it is far from plain Versaille-ing ahead.
External “hawk”, Brazil “dove”
Externally, in the U.S., the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged (3.50%–3.75%), removed forward guidance, and signaled a more hawkish stance amid persistent uncertainty,