Succession planning at the ECB?

Reports that Lagarde might quit early have cast a new spotlight on the succession plans at the ECB. We don’t believe that President Lagarde needs to quit in order to safeguard ECB independence, but ensuring that France keeps a seat on the board may be another motive. The chances of a “package deal” for all three upcoming ECB vacancies are increasing. We think Germany and France will claim two of these, but not the presidency. For future ECB policy, the replacements of Lane and Schnabel are possibly more relevant than Lagarde’s successor.