ECB
The ECB has no reason to accelerate its hiking cycle
Inflation continues to be the ECB’s main concern, but it doesn’t urgently require another hike. We expect the ECB to leave the policy rate at 2.50% next week.
Global daily: Unwanted, not unwarranted
Oil prices rose again yesterday, while US bond yields stabilised and the French-German bond spread inched up. The French government has yet to reassure markets.
Another ECB hike is now more likely than not
We forecast an additional ECB hike to 2.75% in December on the back of higher energy price forecasts.
Reacceleration of inflation cements the case for another ECB hike
A reacceleration of inflation cements the case for another rate hike. But price pressures are limited to energy-related items, and the growth outlook is highly uncertain.
What could the ECB's structural LTROs look like?
The ECB could start discussions about the design of structural LTROs towards the end of this year, but the launch date depends on banks’ demand for reserves.
Exclusive Could the ECB raise the minimum reserve requirement?
The ECB is reportedly considering raising the minimum reserve requirement from 1% to 2%. This would roughly offset the additional interest costs of the June rate hike.