ECB
Lagarde's resignation starts the search for a new ECB president
The departure of three board members and recent bond market volatility increase the likelihood that a familiar face may return to the ECB.
The ECB prepares a December hike, and a hold after that
The ECB decided to leave policy unchanged. The ECB signals that December hike is likely, and that this may be the last in the cycle.
The ECB has no reason to accelerate its hiking cycle
Inflation continues to be the ECB’s main concern, but it doesn’t urgently require another hike. We expect the ECB to leave the policy rate at 2.50% next week.
Global daily: Unwanted, not unwarranted
Oil prices rose again yesterday, while US bond yields stabilised and the French-German bond spread inched up. The French government has yet to reassure markets.
Another ECB hike is now more likely than not
We forecast an additional ECB hike to 2.75% in December on the back of higher energy price forecasts.
Reacceleration of inflation cements the case for another ECB hike
A reacceleration of inflation cements the case for another rate hike. But price pressures are limited to energy-related items, and the growth outlook is highly uncertain.