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Our new energy price forecasts make another rate hike more likely than not. We now expect the ECB to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp in December, to 2.75%. This is not a shift to a stronger policy response. So far, the ECB has managed the inflation and growth risks of the energy shock well. They tightened proactively, but not too much. Our new forecast essentially maintains this balance until energy-driven inflation starts to abate.
Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more
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