Monetary policy
Exclusive Could the ECB raise the minimum reserve requirement?
The ECB is reportedly considering raising the minimum reserve requirement from 1% to 2%. This would roughly offset the additional interest costs of the June rate hike.
Exclusive Brazil agribusiness quarterly Q2 2026
Read the latest on Brazil’s key agribusiness sectors, including soy, cotton, corn, beef, coffee, orange juice, and pulp, alongside insights into the impact of US tariffs.
Between Signals and Flexibility: the Central Bank’s Communication in F
Domestically, both the Copom Minutes and the Quarterly Inflation Report (RPM) highlighted an asymmetrically upside-skewed inflation risk balance and suggested a declining
Exclusive Banxico Post-Decision Report: Nothing to see here...
Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% at the June 25 meeting.
Exclusive Banxico Preview: Soft growth, cool inflation, sticky risks
We expect Banxico to hold the overnight policy rate at 6.50% at the June 25 decision.
External “hawk”, Brazil “dove”
Externally, in the U.S., the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged (3.50%–3.75%), removed forward guidance, and signaled a more hawkish stance amid persistent uncertainty,
Forward guidance is gone
As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and dropped its easing bias.
Rate cuts are moving further into the future
At Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair, the FOMC is likely to remove the easing bias from the statement and drop the 2026 rate cut from the dot plot.
The ECB hiked rates by 25bp. What's next?
The ECB raised the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.25%.
Exclusive Bank of Canada Post-Decision Report: Durable consumption?
The Bank of Canada released its decision to hold the overnight policy rate at 2.25% at the June 10 decision.
Exclusive Bank of Canada Preview: Looking through or turning a blind eye?
We expect the Bank of Canada to hold the overnight policy rate at 2.25%.
ECB preview: A risk-management hike
The risks to inflation are becoming more skewed. We therefore expect that the ECB will hike the deposit rate to 2.25%.
ECB preview: A risk-management hike
The risks to inflation are becoming more skewed. We therefore expect that the ECB will opt for a 25bp risk-management hike next week.
Regime change at the Fed
Kevin Warsh is expected to be sworn in as the new Fed Chair today, relieving Jerome Powell from his duty as Chair pro tempore.
Exclusive Banxico Post-Decision Report: The end of the road?
Banxico cut its policy rate 25bp to 6.50% at the May 7 meeting
Global Daily: Give Peace a Chance
It was TACO Tuesday again in the United States this week as President Trump announced that he was pausing Operation Freedom “for a short period”...
Exclusive Banxico Preview: Looking Through
We expect Banxico to cut the overnight policy rate 25bp at the May 7 meeting. This is likely to be the last cut from the central bank, implying a terminal rate of 6.50%.
ECB comment: June or never?
President Lagarde foreshadows a rate hike in June.
Governor Powell
As widely expected, the FOMC remained on hold.
Exclusive Bank of Canada Post-Decision Report: Tiff be nimble, Tiff be quick
The Bank of Canada released its decision to hold the overnight policy rate at 2.25% at the April 29 decision.
Exclusive Bank of Canada Preview: Turnover
We have maintained that we see the Bank holding the overnight policy rate at 2.25% through to year end, which suggests a hold at the April 29 meeting.
Powell's Farewell Tour
The FOMC is widely expected to remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting.
Ceasefire gives the ECB some time to assess
With less urgency to act, an April hike is now unlikely. We shift our call for a rate hike to June.
Sock puppet
The confirmation hearing of Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh by the Senate Banking Committee was a very partisan affair.
Australian Housing Affordability: The Perennial Debate
This report examines housing affordability in Australia through a historical lens, exploring the contribution of supply and demand side factors.
Exclusive Banxico Update: Skewed to the downside
We still expect one more 25bp cut from Banxico in Q2, but have moved that cut up to May from June.
Exclusive Buying time
Externally, the U.S.–Iran conflict has now reached the one‑month mark with no concrete progress, heightening global uncertainty and raising risks for inflation and fina
Exclusive Banxico Post-Decision Report: Close call
Banxico announced its decision to cut the overnight policy rate 25bp to 6.75% at the most recent meeting.
Exclusive Banxico Preview: More inflationary risks
We expect Banxico to hold the overnight policy rate at 7.00% at the March 26 decision.
The ECB prepares a warning shot
Reality is increasingly shifting towards the ECB’s worse case scenarios, with elevated inflation unless the ECB acts. We pencil in a 25bp rate hike in April.
FOMC still expects to cut once this year
As widely expected, the FOMC remained on hold at the March 17-18 meeting. Governor Miran dissented again.
Exclusive Bank of Canada Post-Decision Report: Between more rocks...
On March 18, the Bank of Canada released its decision to maintain the overnight policy rate at 2.25%, as had been fully priced in by the market.
Exclusive Semana decisiva em meio às incertezas geopolíticas
Externamente, a IEA autorizou a liberação recorde de 400 milhões de barris de petróleo das reservas emergenciais para conter a alta dos preços causada pela guerra no Or
Exclusive Bank of Canada Preview: Rising anxiety
We expect the Bank of Canada to maintain the overnight policy rate at 2.25% at the March 18 decision.
The ECB plays Forbidden Words
We expect the ECB to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%. Beyond March, the outlook is very binary, and tied to developments in the Middle East.
Exclusive Canada Update: Snowflake
CAD avoids the high-volatility, high-risk profile that deters investors in a risk‑off environment, making it comparatively more attractive among commodity currencies.
Exclusive Mexico Update: Energized
MXN’s asymmetric beta to risk persists: in a high‑rate world it remains relatively resilient during risk‑off, supporting continued demand for Mexican assets...
Another supply shock for the Fed
A second supply shock – from higher oil prices – is expected to hit the US economy.
Succession planning at the ECB?
Reports that Lagarde might quit early have cast a new spotlight on the succession plans at the ECB.
FOMC update: The data light the way
After recent data and comments from FOMC members we have updated the timing of the rate cuts in our forecasts.
The Warsh Regime
The most evident regime change with Warsh at the helm of the Fed is likely to take place in balance sheet policy and monetary policy communication.
Exclusive CAD Market Musings: Cooperation?
We foresee further sideways trading for USD/CAD in the year ahead, bounded by 1.36-1.41, though it will be a bumpy ride, especially leading into the USMCA review.
Exclusive Backstops alone won't enhance the euro's global role
The ECB is looking at its international liquidity lines. Improvements may support international appeal of the euro at the margin, but is insufficient to boost EUR's role.
Exclusive Banxico Post-Decision Report: The kettle follows Heath
Banxico maintained the overnight interest rate at 7.00% at the February 5 meeting.
How agile is the ECB?
The ECB left the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%
Exclusive Banxico Preview: Hawk Heath Succeeds?
We expect Banxico to hold the policy rate at 7.00% at the February 5 meeting, which would mark the first pause after 12 consecutive cuts.
Global Daily: What's the Warsh that could happen?
The DXY is dealing firmer this morning and precious metals continue to be flogged like the family silver after Donald Trump confirmed the nomination of Kevin Warsh...
Euro appreciation does not warrant a policy response yet
We still expect the ECB to stay on hold throughout 2026. Lagarde may try to slow the euro’s momentum a bit with verbal intervention.
Time to tap the brakes?
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy rate board will announce its first policy rate decision for 2026 on the 3rd of February.
Global Daily: TechnoFEDalism
The US Federal Reserve’s rate setting committee left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%...