Monetary policy
How to paint yourself into a corner
Yesterday’s CPI report was the last piece of the puzzle and made us change our call from zero rate hikes in 2026 to one and done.
Reacceleration of inflation cements the case for another ECB hike
A reacceleration of inflation cements the case for another rate hike. But price pressures are limited to energy-related items, and the growth outlook is highly uncertain.
Exclusive Bank of Canada Preview: Turn for the worse
We expect the Bank of Canada to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2, with no hikes or cuts forecast through 2027.
A Hawkish Version of No Forward Guidance
For a Chair who does not want to give forward guidance, Warsh was very effective in raising the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
What could the ECB's structural LTROs look like?
The ECB could start discussions about the design of structural LTROs towards the end of this year, but the launch date depends on banks’ demand for reserves.
Exclusive Banxico Post-Decision Report: Pledge to hold
Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% on August 6.