Rates
Exclusive Inflation hedging back on the table?
Recent Dutch pension reforms have changed how the indexation of benefits, hedging of interest rate risk, and inflation exposure of assets interact
Exclusive Bank of Canada Preview: We say "no", but the market says "go"
We forecast the Bank of Canada will keep its policy rate at 2.25% on October 28, contrasting with OIS pricing implying 85% of a 25bp hike.
Skipper Warsh and his Hawkish Crew
We expect the FOMC to remain on hold in October. However, we are likely to see Hammack, Kashkari and Logan repeat their July dissents in favor of a hike at this meeting.
Government debt sustainability
Rising debt and interest costs are increasing fiscal pressure. An acute crisis is unlikely, but gradual deterioration remains a key risk.
The ECB has no reason to accelerate its hiking cycle
Inflation continues to be the ECB’s main concern, but it doesn’t urgently require another hike. We expect the ECB to leave the policy rate at 2.50% next week.
Midterms and Markets
The midterm elections could mean a shift from unified Republican government to divided government.