North American Agribusiness Quarterly Q1 2026

Consumer dynamics continue to shift as affordability pressures persist. Higher-income households are trading up to premium products, while lower-income consumers are cutting back, leaning on private label, and cooking more at home. New US dietary guidelines and the rapid adoption of GLP-1 medications are reshaping food demand, favoring protein- and fiber-rich products over calorie-dense, ultra-processed foods.

Winter weather added pressure across the supply chain: A late-January freeze stressed soil moisture across the eastern Corn Belt, Southeast, and Delta, with moisture recovery becoming critical for normal 2026 yields. Logistics markets remain soft, with trucking and container freight weighed down by weak demand and geopolitical uncertainty.

Cattle supplies continue to tighten. The US beef cow herd fell again to 27.6m head, setting the stage for further contraction into 2027, while calf imports from Mexico remain sharply lower. Despite higher cattle costs, boxed beef values have struggled to keep pace. In contrast, the dairy sector is expanding: December milk production rose 4.4% YOY, supported by the largest US herd since the mid-1990s. Butter and cheese production remain strong, and competitive pricing should support exports in 2026.

In poultry, early-year storms caused temporary disruptions, but chicken production still began 2026 more than 3% above last year. Boneless breast prices remain under pressure, while dark meat is supported by export demand. Pork supplies remain tight due to ongoing herd health issues, pushing feeder pig prices higher and supporting firm cutout values.

Crop markets are steady but pressured. US corn exports are running well ahead of last year, supported by historically tight Brazilian stocks, although large US inventories are keeping futures in a narrow range. Wheat remains stuck in sideways trade as global production stays strong, and soy fundamentals remain challenging despite positive policy signals.

Fruit and vegetable markets show mixed conditions. Avocado and apple supplies remain ample, while leafy-green markets are extremely tight: Iceberg lettuce prices have surged more than 200% YOY on planting gaps and weather-related disruptions.