Update

Global aquaculture update 2H 2026: Converging global pressures drive uncertain outlook

16 July 2026 16:00 RaboResearch

Macroeconomic headwinds weigh on consumption, while environmental risks and shifting trade dynamics could continue to reshape supply and pricing.

Intro

    Salmon prices are likely to see modest support as supply tightens in the second half and demand remains resilient, with any upward movement expected to build from the relatively low base seen earlier in the year. Redirection of shrimp exports from the US into already saturated EU and Chinese markets is likely to intensify competition, elevate localized oversupply risks, and keep shrimp prices under sustained pressure, with volatility driven by short‑term demand and inventory dynamics. Fish meal prices are already elevated, and with the increasing likelihood of a strong El Niño, the market is anticipating a potential supply shortage, with prices possibly surpassing 2023 levels.

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