Global beef quarterly Q3 2026

Trade disruptions start to lead to a redistribution of global beef flows as global supplies continue to decline and cattle prices remain high. The Chinese import quota has seen Austrlaian exports to China drop dramatically since June. Brazilian volumes are expected to drop in August as they approach their quota. Meanwhile global beef supplies are expected to contract in Q2 with an overal reduction of 2-3% in 2026.

In the feature article we take a deeper dive into the impact of trade disruptions on the Brazilian cattle market. China has been the key driver of Brazil’s beef export expansion in recent years, both in volume and market relevance. In 2025, China remained Brazil’s largest beef destination, absorbing around 48% of total export volume. But reaching the import quota limit in August or potentially September, and the expected suspension from the European market will change the Brazilian market. Lower cattle prices and stronger retention of cattle may see supplies drop which may provide some balance to a likely reduction in export volumes.