Global beef quarterly Q4 2026

Global beef production is expected to decline by 0.1% in 2027, following an estimated 1.5% contraction in 2026. Brazil is forecast to see the largest reduction, while production is also expected to fall in the EU+UK and China. In contrast, Australia and New Zealand are expected to record production growth.

With supplies remaining tight, cattle prices across most regions are expected to stay close to current high levels. At the same time, differences in regional supply and demand, together with changes in market access, are expected to continue reshaping global beef trade.

These supply dynamics come alongside continued pressure from costs and consumer price tolerance. Fuel costs are expected to remain historically high and feed prices slightly higher, adding to supply chain costs at a time when retail beef prices are already elevated. This may limit the ability to pass on additional costs and increase pressure on margins. Meanwhile, quotas and other changes in trade policy are redirecting beef flows between markets, with disruption expected to continue into 2027.