Brazilian coffee monthly update: August 2026

As the 2026/27 harvest nears completion, the first flowering events for the 2027/28 crop have already been observed in several Brazilian coffee-growing regions. Flowering and fruit set conditions have generally been satisfactory, supporting positive expectations for next season. Brazilian coffee exports totaled 3.03m bags in July, remaining stable compared to the previous year. In the futures market, arabica prices rose about 7.6% during August, driven by stronger buying interest and firmer market sentiment. Conversely, robusta prices declined approximately 7.8%, closing the month near their lowest levels. The correction in both markets reflected a reduction in supply-related risk premiums. Weather conditions improved significantly, with rainfall volumes exceeding historical averages across most producing areas. Higher soil moisture levels supported crop development and reduced weather-related concerns. The return of rainfall increased confidence in the next crop, while expectations of another large Brazilian harvest improved supply prospects. As a result, market sentiment turned more bearish.