Update

Brazilian coffee monthly update: September 2026

19 October 2026 10:15 RaboResearch
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Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

Intro

    The coffee market narrative is shifting from climate risks and supply constraints toward the prospect of a surplus and the rebuilding of global stocks. Improved weather in the main producing countries, particularly Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia, along with expectations of increased Brazilian exports, is reducing the risks associated with the 2027/28 harvest. However, the supply-demand balance remains highly uncertain, with key variables for both arabica and robusta still to be determined over the production cycle. Continued monitoring of weather, as well as agronomic, logistical, and commercial conditions, remains essential. Brazil exported 4.15m 60kg bags in August 2026, up 22% MOM and 31% YOY. Despite the year-on-year increase in August, January to July exports reached 25.07m bags, down 2.2% from the same period in 2025. Still, the recent acceleration in shipments reinforces the expectation of greater Brazilian coffee availability on the international market, contributing to the outlook for replenishing global stocks. Coffee prices diverged sharply in September. ICE NY Arabica fell 15.1%, from USD 3.42/lb to USD 2.91/lb, while London Robusta edged up just 0.4%, from USD 3,431 to USD 3,445/metric ton. Arabica remained under pressure until September 22, when it reached a monthly low of USD 2.72/lb, down 20.4% from the beginning of the month. Prices subsequently recovered 6.8% by the end of the month, but not enough to offset the losses. Robusta also hit a low on September 22, at USD 3,230/metric ton, before rebounding 6.7% to close the month near its opening level. Arabica’s relative premium over robusta shrank, reflecting greater weakness and volatility in arabica, while robusta proved more resilient. These movements underscore the need for businesses to monitor margins and spreads closely. The recovery at the end of the month improved the starting point for October, but it does not yet signal a reversal of arabica’s downward monthly trend. September weather was quite favorable across Brazil’s arabica- and conilon-producing regions. All locations analyzed recorded rainfall volumes significantly above the historical average of the past 15 years. Guaxupé in Minas Gerais, for example, received 154mm of precipitation, compared with an historical average of 57.2mm. Manhuaçu, also in Minas Gerais, received 111mm, versus an average of 28.5mm. Linhares in Espírito Santo, an important conilon-producing region, received 90mm, compared with the 29.4mm historical average. With crops in a crucial phase of flowering and vegetative growth, these conditions support production potential and strengthen the favorable outlook for the 2027/28 harvest.

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Brazilian coffee monthly update September 2026

Previous editions

Brazilian coffee monthly update August 2026
Brazilian coffee monthly update July 2026
Brazilian coffee monthly update June 2026
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The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any transactions described and/or commercial ideas contained in this document. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. Read more