Research

NZ Dairy: Back in the Black Once More – Conditions Are Shaping up for Another Good Milk Price

16 April 2019 12:56 RaboResearch

Fourth time lucky for NZ dairy farmers, as conditions are shaping up for another good milk price.

Rabobank

Report summary

Rabobank forecasts an NZD 6.65/kgMS milk price for the 2018/19 season, according to the new seasonal outlook for NZ Dairy: Back in the Black Once More.

Some highlights from our outlook:

    We anticipate an opening milk price of NZD 7.15/kgMS for the new 2019/20 season. Farmers should factor in some cost inflation – off the back of a high opening milk price and budget accordingly. The downside risks to demand growth are mounting. These could act as a moderator to high milk prices for the new season. Gloomier economic growth forecasts, particularly for China, are of most concern. We have trimmed our milk production forecast for the current season to growth of just 3%. We see milk production for the 2019/20 season declining by 1% YOY.

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