On-Year for US Pistachios Still On: 2020/21-2025/26 Market Outlook

US pistachio production will most likely exceed the 1bn-pound milestone during the 2020 on-year, setting a new production record. However, the crop may not be as large as many expected, as some issues during bloom impacted yield prospects.

Demand for pistachios, both domestic and international, is set to keep up with the supply expansion. Although total demand may be impacted by the global economic downturn amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the outlook is still favorable in the longer run.

“International reference prices have remained mostly steady through pandemic times. We expect average returns to the US grower to remain relatively stable through 2025/26, but potential volatility is always looming, particularly during these unprecedented times,” according to David Magaña, Senior Analyst – Fresh Produce and Tree Nuts at Rabobank.

This report presents a price outlook, assuming alternative market conditions, to showcase the sensitivity of the six-year average price to a hypothetical deeper-than-expected global economic recession and to alternative market share of US pistachios in Middle Eastern markets.