Brazil Agribusiness Quarterly Q3 2026

FX: We expect USD/BRL to reach 5.35 by the end of 2026, with the BRL facing pressure from the electoral race, fiscal risks and geopolitical uncertainty. A wide interest rate differential and improved terms of trade should help mitigate downside pressures.

Weather: El Niño remains the main focus for the Brazil crop season beginning in mid-September.

Farm inputs: Urea and MAP imports remain behind schedule, raising concerns for the next crop season, especially the upcoming second-crop corn season.

Cane, sugar, and ethanol: Raw sugar prices shot up 20% in August, as a result of changing perspectives in Brazil and India, with fund activity adding to the upward momentum.

Coffee: As the harvest advances and global supply increases, coffee prices are expected to continue adjusting to evolving market fundamentals.

Soybeans: Despite margin pressure at the farm level, Brazil’s soybean complex is expected to achieve record highs in production, exports, and processing during the 2025/26 season.

Corn: Despite stable production, strong growth in domestic demand continues to reshape Brazil’s corn market, helping to keep corn prices supported even amid the rapid progress of the safrinha harvest.

Cotton: Supported by abundant supplies and tightening global stocks, Brazil is set to consolidate its leadership in global cotton exports in 2026/27.

Beef: With China’s safeguard quota nearing its limit, exports in July 2026 recorded a sharp 17% year-on-year decline, ending seven consecutive months of growth.

Orange juice: Prices have stabilized and are starting to show some early signs of recovery. Concerns about El Niño impacting the next crop and more stable demand could allow for a gradual recovery later in 2026.

Dairy: Milk output is set to continue losing momentum and lead to a flat year in terms of production growth compared to 2025. The impacts of a strong El Niño could be relevant, especially in the south and in the northeast of the country.

Pulp: Demand stabilizing as supply-side cuts continue, supporting the case for some price increases in late 2026.