Outside Influences on the Grains & Oilseeds Industry: June 2019

Chinese pork production in 2019 is expected to suffer losses of 25% to 35% as a result of African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks. Outside of China, the global pork trade demand (see related download below) is benefiting producers, including in Europe and the US; Brazil’s pork producers, in particular, should see some of their best returns in years.

Impact on G&O: Rabobank forecasts the reduction in Chinese soymeal use and soybean imports to be closer to 5%, as rising Chinese feed needs for poultry and aquaculture, combined with an increasing soymeal inclusion rate, somewhat offset the losses in hog feed.

Global poultry production (see related download below) is rising 2% to 3% YOY in 2019. The US is on a disciplined supply growth in a fragile market, while Brazil is recovering after the perfect storm seen in 2018.

Impact on G&O: Continued growth in global poultry will benefit feed demand in poultry-exporting countries.

Hemp and hemp-derived products like CBD will soon become a multibillion-dollar industry, but the road ahead is rocky, risky, and untraveled. CBD in food faces lots of serious headwinds, including bad taste, which will impact the development of the CBD market in the next decade.

Impact on G&O: For many hemp-curious US farmers and investors, it might pay to sit on the sidelines a little longer. Hemp is hard to grow; the market opportunity is real, but limited; and a lack of transparency makes it hard to navigate. We don’t expect to see significant competition for traditional US G&O acres from hemp.

The Impossible Burger – seemingly in everyone's mouth at the moment – makes use of genetically modified ingredients. Rabobank’s podcast discusses what Frankenstein and the Six Million Dollar Man can teach us about science and food.

Impact on G&O: GMO grains & oilseeds have been around for more than two decades, providing opportunities for and challenges to the G&O sector – and the discussion surrounding them isn't often driven by science.

Rabobank recently published the World Seafood Map and the World Potato Map.

Impact on G&O: You can also find other maps on the Rabobank website.