China Dairy Outlook Through 2032: How Chinese Dairy Sector Development Will Impact Dairy Imports

The next phase in China’s dairy sector development will focus on productivity and cost-efficiency improvements. Rabobank forecasts a plausible scenario whereby milk supply expands from 41.5m metric tons in 2023 to 47.4m metric tons LME in 2032, with an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5% by volume. At the same time, medium- to long-term per capita demand growth is expected to remain healthy. Rabobank forecasts China’s demand growth to average 2.4% annually between 2023 and 2032, with dairy consumption reaching 62.2m metric tons LME by 2032. As a result, China will continue to have a significant role in the global dairy industry, with a further widening of the import deficit expected. In 2032, imports are forecast to reach 15m metric tons LME.

Alternative scenarios to China’s supply and demand outlook see the annual import deficit range from 8m to 19.2m metric tons in 2032. The most significant swing factors influencing domestic supply will be production costs, the availability of land, water, heifers, and capital, and future government policy. On the demand side, downside risks include weaker income growth, slow economic growth, and sluggish consumer demand.