North America containerboard quarterly: Q1 2026

The containerboard sector ended 2025 on a firm footing, helped by seasonal strength and resilient e‑commerce demand, even as overall retail sales remained flat. Record online spending during Cyber Week and rapid growth in AI‑driven retail traffic boosted box shipments, though e‑commerce alone cannot sustain long‑term growth.

Our latest forecasts indicate near‑term volatility followed by a gradual recovery, with demand expected to remain broadly flat through late 2027 and risks tilted modestly to the upside. The significant capacity reductions over the past year have helped lift operating rates to healthier levels, and we expect supply and demand to realign more sustainably over the long term. While the pricing outlook turns soft, with only a 2% annual increase projected through 2027, improving demand conditions, ongoing cost inflation, and continued industry consolidation should support the potential for modest, steady price gains.