Research

The North American Sugar Market to 2030: Challenges and Opportunities

11 May 2023 18:16 RaboResearch

The North American sugar outlook to 2030 presents some of the major short- and long-term trends that we believe are likely to have implications in the US and Mexican suga

Intro

Some of the most important takeaways we found:

    The expected decline in the US beet area for the upcoming 2023/24 season could continue for at least a few more years. By 2027, beet area could lose another 100,000 acres or more to other competing crops, particularly to soybeans. US per capita sugar consumption has improved over the past couple of years after a long struggle. As we move forward, we expect per capita consumption to stabilize around current levels of 33.7kg to 34kg. Mexico’s cane field yields are expected to gradually recover after posting a sharp decline in 2022/23. We expect to see more investment to cane fields. In the years to come, Mexico’s domestic consumption is anticipated to remain relatively soft and constrained at around 30kg per person per year. Consumers have been influenced by different public policies, such as taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and other foods, and a front-of-pack labeling policy, for example. Mexico’s exports will be key to balancing its market in the long run. Exports to the US do not have much room to grow in the coming years. Mexico will need to be prepared to play a more active and strategic role in the global export market. The current high price and margin environment in Mexico should provide an opportunity for the Mexican industry to invest in more technology, including (where possible) mechanization, irrigation and field improvements.

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