Half a glass

The general pattern that we have been witnessing so far is that China is the only country that truly has taken a tit-for-that approach to the trade war, acting from a (perceived, at least) position of geoeconomic strength. But as time passes, the impact of the tariffs and ensuing uncertainty is starting to be felt. The drop in Chinese cargo to the US, while not as extreme as some portray, is big. The pain in China is real, but soon, too, will it be for the US. The sharp rise in inflation concerns in the University of Michigan survey last month served as a warning of the pain that may be ahead for US consumers.