Global orange juice market 2025/26: Market rebalances as Brazilian farmers weigh geographical shift

In this report, we evaluate the potential for a geographical shift in Brazilian orange production from São Paulo to neighboring states, driven by rising citrus greening infection rates. This trend could significantly reshape fruit-sourcing strategies for the orange juice industry. Additionally, we assess the outlook for the 2025/26 crop year, following the recent release of Fundecitrus’ official forecast, which estimates production at 314 million boxes – a 36% rebound from the 2024/25 crop. While global supply is expected to return to more normalized levels, inventory levels remain below average, and several downside risks to the upcoming harvest could result in a significantly lower final output.