Research

Deep dive: What drives Western Australian grain-producing farmland values

5 September 2025 10:00 RaboResearch

Farmland is worth its weight in grain. We zoom in on Geraldton in Western Australia to explore the drivers that shape farmland values there and across Australia.

Intro

The bedrock of farmland valuation in Australia started changing in 2020, on the back of global shocks and bumper crops. In this report, we zoom in on Geraldton’s port zone in Western Australia, where farmland values exhibit a growth pattern closely tied to seasonal gross margin performance. Farmland values in Geraldton's port zone are inherently tied to wheat yield potential, with a nonlinear premium observed in higher-performing zones further west. Sales data from 2022-2024 shows values rose sharply with higher yields, highlighting the structural link between revenue potential and asset value. This offers insights applicable to other regions in Australia, with adjustments for rainfall, soil, and cropping intensity.

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