UK Budget: Reeves and Repeat

The UK's Autumn Budget front-loads spending while deferring tax rises until the election horizon. This makes the £22 billion fiscal buffer unconvincing. In this Budget, there is little to boost growth, investment, or confidence. In short, this is a Survival Budget, crafted to appease MPs and markets rather than reset the economy. The measures are expected to cut CPI by 0.4pp in 2026, prompting us to add an extra BoE rate cut to our forecast.