Five-year California almond outlook

Californian almond growers have faced tough economic times in recent years, but prices have drastically improved over the past 18 months and are poised to go even higher over the next five years. However, it will not be a straight line up. Yield improvements and slower-than-historic demand growth will cause carry-in to rise, and will keep a ceiling on price potential in 2026/27 and 2027/28. However, an upcoming reduction in bearing acreage due to the aging-out of trees will tighten supplies. Carry-in will start to come back down, while demand growth will stabilize but continue. Grower prices will then start to increase again.