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Mexico sugar outlook 2026/27: Improved access to US market should improve industry margins

27 July 2026 10:01 RaboResearch
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Mexico’s sugar sector is expected to regain broader access to the US market in 2026/27 after several years of constrained exports. While the country’s export requirement remains largely unchanged, a larger share of shipments to the higher-value US market could improve margins, support domestic sugar prices, and accelerate inventory movement.

Intro

This report examines the outlook for the Mexican sugar sector during the 2026/27 cycle, with a particular focus on the recovery of access to the US market under the Suspension Agreements.

Key takeaways include:

    Mexican sugar exports to the US could rebound sharply from 199,000 metric tons in 2025/26 to around 1.15 million metric tons in 2026/27, according to the USDA. While Mexico's export requirement remains largely unchanged, exporting to a higher-value market like the US would significantly improve profits. Stronger access to the US market would also support faster inventory movement, domestic sugar and cane prices, and industry margins throughout 2026/27.

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Mexico sugar outlook 2026_27_ Improved access to US market should improve industry margins
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The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any transactions described and/or commercial ideas contained in this document. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. Read more