Bank of England: No hold in November?

The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, broadly in line with expectations, although markets had priced a small chance of a 25bp hike. Governor Bailey signalled that rates could rise if the Middle East conflict persists and fuels second-round inflation effects, making November a live meeting. With our energy team now expecting sustained higher energy prices, we add a 25bp hike to our forecast, taking Bank Rate to 4.00%. The main surprise was the APF announcement, with the Bank outlining an eight-year unwind plan aimed at easing long-end supply pressures.