Building export resilience: Managing the next demand challenge for US pork

For the past three decades, export markets have driven growth and profitability in the US pork industry. International markets have not only absorbed expanding US production but have also improved carcass values by providing outlets for cuts, variety meats, and other products with relatively limited domestic demand. While exports remain essential to the industry, the market environment that drove this model is becoming more challenging.

As highlighted in the RaboResearch World Pork Map (August 2026), global protein supplies are expanding, while at the same time competition from low-cost exporters such as Brazil is increasing and many importing countries are now investing in domestic production and food security. The US remains one of the lowest-cost pork producers and is well positioned to compete, but its growing reliance on exports and increasing concentration in only a few markets is a risk. This is the situation in Mexico, for example, where a significant share of US bone-in ham volume is shipped. Maintaining access to this market will be critical as competition increases and trade relationships become less predictable.

The challenge is not to reduce the industry’s reliance on exports, but to make an inherently export-dependent model more resilient. Maintaining the US cost advantage is a necessary, but not sufficient condition to maintaining exports. Deepening export relationships in key markets such as Mexico will become more critical, as will developing additional export outlets before they are needed. Domestic and alternative uses for export-dependent products can also provide a buffer in the event of disruption, although less likely to replace major export flows at scale. Future competitiveness will depend on preserving the advantages that have made US pork successful globally, while broadening the number of markets, products and end uses available when trade flows change.