Research
Priced abroad, produced at home: The structure of US phosphates and what comes next
The biggest challenges facing US phosphates may no longer be geological. Policy is under scrutiny as growers and producers remain under pressure.
The US phosphate industry is going through a moment of compressed margins, demonstrating that domestic producers do not have complete control over their profitability. While we expect the margins of US producers to improve as feedstock costs decline, onshoring the levers of control is both a corporate and a national mandate.
Many of the tools used to date have worked against the stated aims of helping domestic growers and domestic phosphate producers. The trends over the last 16+ years point to a secular direction that needs correcting and may call for some contrarian thinking to reshape the industry’s future.
As the US continues to lose a competitive edge in many industrial sectors, a rethinking of market structure at both the corporate and national level may ultimately suit the country and the farmer. A critical mineral designation of phosphate reserves alone will not solve the industry’s underlying challenges.