Eurozone
The ECB has no reason to accelerate its hiking cycle
Inflation continues to be the ECB’s main concern, but it doesn’t urgently require another hike. We expect the ECB to leave the policy rate at 2.50% next week.
Global daily: Unwanted, not unwarranted
Oil prices rose again yesterday, while US bond yields stabilised and the French-German bond spread inched up. The French government has yet to reassure markets.
Eurozone inflation is re-energized
Higher energy prices drive Eurozone inflation higher. The immediate rebound is energy-driven, but higher energy and distribution costs also feed into core inflation.
Reacceleration of inflation cements the case for another ECB hike
A reacceleration of inflation cements the case for another rate hike. But price pressures are limited to energy-related items, and the growth outlook is highly uncertain.
What could the ECB's structural LTROs look like?
The ECB could start discussions about the design of structural LTROs towards the end of this year, but the launch date depends on banks’ demand for reserves.
Monthly Outlook: Groundhog Day Economics
The danger is not that we keep reliving the same day. It is that, eventually, the script changes.