Government policy
Government debt sustainability
Rising debt and interest costs are increasing fiscal pressure. An acute crisis is unlikely, but gradual deterioration remains a key risk.
Research
When Trade Meets Economic Security
EU-China trade relationship under pressure
Research
Midterms and Markets
The midterm elections could mean a shift from unified Republican government to divided government.
Research
Global daily: Unwanted, not unwarranted
Oil prices rose again yesterday, while US bond yields stabilised and the French-German bond spread inched up. The French government has yet to reassure markets.
Newsletter
France: Le Pen would bring fiscal uncertainty and friction with EU
Polls indicate that Le Pen could win the race for the French presidency. Subsequent parliamentary elections could extend uncertainty through spring.
Research
Bessent's Game of Chicken with the Bond Vigilantes
If the Treasury runs out of firepower and yields spike again, the Fed may feel compelled to step in and buy those bonds.
Research