Fed
Appetite for Destruction
After recent speeches by FOMC participants we change our Fed forecasts by adding a rate hike in December 2026.
Research
The Fed's Declaration of Independence
Today the FOMC unanimously decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps.
Research
Global Daily: Willy Wonka and the Compute Factories
Oil prices are rising again on news of the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline following drone strikes, and the Houthis’ seizure of strategic locations...
Newsletter
How to paint yourself into a corner
Yesterday’s CPI report was the last piece of the puzzle and made us change our call from zero rate hikes in 2026 to one and done.
Research
A Hawkish Version of No Forward Guidance
For a Chair who does not want to give forward guidance, Warsh was very effective in raising the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
Research
All talk and no hike
Today’s FOMC meeting was all talk and no action.
Research