Global Strategy
Exclusive The Devils in the Details
The collapse of the US-Iran MoU in early July led to escalation and higher crude prices.
Hormuz update: Comfortably Bomb
The US-Iran MoU appears to have collapsed sooner than we had thought. US efforts will turn to ensuring energy can flow through Hormuz by escorting ships.
Global Strategy: Hormuz update: Still not plain Versaille-ing
A 14-point US-Iran MoU has reopened Hormuz earlier than expected and is now the basis for 60-days of discussions - but it is far from plain Versaille-ing ahead.
Exclusive Longer Stalemate, Higher Prices
As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, energy inventories will draw and force prices higher over time.
How the war in Iran could impact China
Oil and gas prices have shot up and have remained extremely volatile since the start of the US and Israel’s war against Iran, leading to upside inflation risks globally
Exclusive Another Ceasefire
Our base case now assumes an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing any meaningful normalisation of energy flows toward late September.