Brazilian coffee monthly update: July 2026

By the end of July, Brazil had harvested 76% of its coffee crop, including 65% of the arabica crop and 98% of the robusta (conilon) crop. Harvesting remains behind schedule. Recent rains across the main coffee-growing regions caused part of the crop to fall to the ground. Although it is still not possible to estimate what proportion of the total crop has been affected, the coffee cherries that have fallen will certainly suffer a decline in quality. One important aspect to monitor is the quality differential. The supply of premium coffees this season may be more limited compared to lower-quality coffees, as the recent rainfall may have significantly impacted coffee quality in several regions of Brazil’s coffee belt.

Regarding robusta coffee, some companies have reported crop losses in certain locations and may revise their production estimates. However, according to Rabobank’s crop survey, these losses were already expected, as observed during field visits conducted in Espírito Santo and Rondônia.

Brazil exported 3.06 million bags in June, a volume 1% lower than in May, when exports totaled 3.09 million bags. However, June 2026 shipments were 17.2% higher compared to June 2025, when Brazil exported 2.61 million bags. The delayed harvest has affected the pace of exports. From January through June this year, Brazil shipped 17.8 million bags, a volume 8.2% lower than the 19.4 million bags exported during the same period last year. However, shipments are expected to increase considerably in the coming months.

Arabica coffee futures traded on the ICE New York exchange remained highly volatile and averaged USD 3.29/lb in July, maintaining historically elevated levels. However, when compared with physical coffee prices in the Brazilian market, a clear loss of correlation can be observed between the international futures market and domestic basis levels. Throughout July, the New York market showed strong volatility, closing the month at USD 3.32/lb, while Brazilian physical prices remained relatively contained, with Cerrado Screen 16 closing at BRL 1,767 per bag and Sul de Minas Type 6 at BRL 1,716 per bag.

On the geopolitical front, the US did not impose tariffs on coffee in its various forms of commercialization, though products such as ethanol and organic sugar were subject to a 25% tariff.

Regarding rainfall conditions observed in July, some cities recorded precipitation levels above the historical average of the last 15 years. Notable examples include Guaxupé (MG), with accumulated rainfall of 54mm compared to a historical average of 18mm, Manhuaçu (MG), with 49mm versus a 12mm average, Três Pontas (MG), with 24mm compared to a historical average of 20mm, and Franca (SP), with 38mm versus a historical average of 12mm.