Forecasts

Exclusive Running on Fumes

Exclusive The Devils in the Details

The collapse of the US-Iran MoU in early July led to escalation and higher crude prices.

July RBNZ Decision Review

This report reviews the July RBNZ policy rate decision and recent economic developments for New Zealand.

Exclusive Longer Stalemate, Higher Prices

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, energy inventories will draw and force prices higher over time.

Eurozone growth slowed ahead of the Iran war

The Eurozone economy grew 0.1% q/q in Q1. The slowdown ahead of the Iran war reflects, in part, delayed effects of US import tariffs.

Exclusive Another Ceasefire

Our base case now assumes an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing any meaningful normalisation of energy flows toward late September.