Forecasts
Exclusive Longer Stalemate, Higher Prices
As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, energy inventories will draw and force prices higher over time.
Eurozone growth slowed ahead of the Iran war
The Eurozone economy grew 0.1% q/q in Q1. The slowdown ahead of the Iran war reflects, in part, delayed effects of US import tariffs.
Exclusive Another Ceasefire
Our base case now assumes an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing any meaningful normalisation of energy flows toward late September.
Iran war causes heterogenous shocks across member states
The Iran war delivers a stagflationary shock. Italy and Germany are most exposed, while Spain is more resilient; energy mix, fiscal support and buffers explain this.
Brazil agribusiness quarterly Q1 2026
Read the latest on Brazil’s key agribusiness sectors, including soy, cotton, corn, beef, coffee, orange juice, and pulp, alongside insights into the impact of US tariffs.
Global outlook: Energy shock slows economic growth around the globe
War in the Middle East has upended global energy markets. This affects the entire global economy.