Update
Australia agribusiness monthly September 2026: The price gains of sugar, cotton, and grains
Here are the main highlights for some of Australia’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report covers the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Climate: August conditions were more favourable than July, with widespread rainfall supporting winter crops and pastures. Spring risks include below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, increasing reliance on stored soil moisture.
Wheat and barley: Global grain markets remain supported by Black Sea export disruptions, lower wheat production among key exporters, and tightening corn supplies. Despite a smaller harvest and ongoing northern dryness, Australia is expected to remain adequately supplied from new crop production and carry-over stocks.
Canola: Canola prices strengthened during August, supported by robust vegetable oil demand, strong crushing margins, and ongoing Black Sea disruptions. Record Canadian production and higher global oilseed stocks continue to balance the market, while Australian values remain firm.
Beef: Cattle prices are tracking seasonal changes at the moment, with high prices through June and July off the back of rainfall dropping before lifting again with more rain in late August. If seasonal conditions remain good, we could see some further upside.
Sheepmeat: While new season lambs are entering the market and sheep slaughter volumes are lifting, they both remain below the five-year average, and these limited supplies continue to support prices. Although as volumes lift through September and October, we expect to see prices ease slightly.
Wool: The winter recess didn’t help prices, with most categories dropping when the market resumed in late August. Wool production forecasts for 2026/27 were revised up from earlier publications but still see a 1.8% decline on 2025/26 volumes.
Cotton: Cotton prices have risen more than 30% in 2026, as global production declines and export demand remains strong. However, expectations for Chinese imports are high, but overall demand uncertainty continues to cap upside.
Farm inputs: Global fertiliser prices softened in August, led by weaker urea values following India’s tender and increased Chinese exports. Phosphate markets remained firm amid supply constraints, while inventories improved Australia’s supply outlook and reduced shortage concerns.
Sugar: Sugar prices have surged on Brazil harvest disruption, Indian policy changes, and speculative buying. Prices will focus on Brazilian weather risks and Indian import demand.
Dairy: Global dairy market fundamentals are transitioning. Supply expansion is slowing, while demand has strengthened, creating a more supportive backdrop for commodity values. Southern Hemisphere weather will be the key determinant of market direction over the coming months.
Consumer foods: Food inflation remained stuck above 3% year-on-year in July, led by pricing pressure in foodservice channels. Meanwhile the battle between Coles and Woolworths is heating up with volume growth coming mostly from more shopping trips at a time when own brands are performing strongly.
Interest rate and FX: Stronger-than-expected inflation figures for the month of July have precipitated a re-think among several local banks regarding the outlook for the cash rate. RaboResearch has brought forward our projection of a 25bp rate hike from the November meeting to the September RBA meeting.
Oil and freight: Oil prices are little changed since the end of July, as a cooling in hostilities has been largely offset by continued tightening of global energy stocks. The US has taken steps to increase Venezuelan production, but this is unlikely to change the picture in the near term.