Update
New Zealand agribusiness monthly September 2026: A spring in the step for spring
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Dairy: Powder-led price gains are stabilising dairy markets, supported by slowing export milk supply growth and improving Asian demand, though El Niño weather risks and weaker butterfat and cheese markets remain key watchpoints.
Beef: Beef markets remain well-supported by constrained global supply, though easing US trim values and shifting Australian and Brazilian trade flows warrant attention. New Zealand remains well positioned, with firm demand and perhaps potential opportunities emerging in China.
Sheep: Sheepmeat markets are ending the season on firm footing, supported by record export returns and tighter North Island supply. Lamb farmgate prices still appear well supported, though sustained offshore demand will be key as seasonal volumes build.
Farm inputs: Global nitrogen fertiliser markets softened in August, led by weaker urea prices and improved supply. Phosphate markets remained firm. Continued energy costs volatility and supply disruptions are expected to keep fertilizer prices volatile
Interest rate and FX: Expectations surrounding the path of the OCR were little changed in August, but the New Zealand dollar gained further ground against the US dollar. We expect the OCR to rise to 3.25% by Q1 next year and the NZD to rally toward USD 0.61 in 12 months.
Oil and freight: Oil prices are little changed since the end of July as a cooling in hostilities has been largely offset by continued tightening of global energy stocks. The US has taken steps to increase Venezuelan production, but this is unlikely to change the picture in the near term.