Research

Monthly Outlook: Promise and peril

1 July 2026 16:28 RaboResearch

Two forces have defined financial markets in the first half of the year: the surge in tech and AI, and a steady ratcheting up (and down) of geopolitical risk. Together they have created an environment that is both buoyant and uneasy. The traditional expectation of a seasonal lull may prove misplaced. Markets have shown a capacity to absorb shocks, but the margin for error is narrowing.

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Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more