Monthly Outlook
Monthly Outlook: The bill comes due
For years, governments behaved as if debt were tomorrow’s problem, but this year’s inflationary energy shock seems to have sped up tomorrow’s arrival.
Monthly Outlook: War and P.E.A.C.E
We expect a world at P.E.A.C.E.: that is, Protectionism; Energy & commodities; Arms & AI; Central banks; and Economic statecraft.
Monthly Outlook: A heating up world that can't cool down
August was sleepless not sleepy for Europe. Stifling heat disrupted bedtimes and the economy. Politics is looking 'hotter' too: The US midterms and French elections loom.
Monthly Outlook: Groundhog Day Economics
The danger is not that we keep reliving the same day. It is that, eventually, the script changes.
Monthly Outlook: Promise and peril
The traditional expectation of a seasonal lull may prove misplaced. Markets have shown a capacity to absorb shocks, but the margin for error is narrowing.
Monthly Outlook: Memorandum of Misunderstanding
We now assume that Hormuz is likely to be out of normal action up to September.