Monthly Outlook
Monthly Outlook: Promise and peril
The traditional expectation of a seasonal lull may prove misplaced. Markets have shown a capacity to absorb shocks, but the margin for error is narrowing.
Monthly Outlook: Memorandum of Misunderstanding
We now assume that Hormuz is likely to be out of normal action up to September.
Monthly Outlook: Waiting
As the conflict between the United States and Iran approaches its two-month mark, financial markets are still grappling with the implications.
Monthly Outlook: War and Peace
For now, we stick to our scenario of the Iran war being over in 2-3 weeks on largely US terms, then a slow return to normal for energy… but not for geopolitics.
Monthly Outlook: Grappling with known unknowns
Four themes dominate markets: uncertainty about the Fed's future direction, AI, restructuring of US tariff policy and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East
Monthly Outlook: Wear an extra vest
“Buckle up” was our main message last month. Events since early December have only reinforced that view. A cold Arctic wind may require an extra vest this year, too.