Monthly Outlook: Groundhog Day Economics

Every week seems to follow the same pattern these days. President Trump pauses strikes on Iran. A few days later, tensions flare again. Markets appear increasingly comfortable with the assumption that Hormuz remains sufficiently open and that energy flows continue to normalise. That confidence may prove justified. Yet if energy flows do not recover, the second half of this story could prove messier. The danger is not that we keep reliving the same day. It is that, eventually, the script changes.