USD rates
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The FOMC remained on hold today, but Hammack and Cook dissented in favor of a hike.
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Skipper Warsh and his Hawkish Crew
We expect the FOMC to remain on hold in October. However, we are likely to see Hammack, Kashkari and Logan repeat their July dissents in favor of a hike at this meeting.
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Midterms and Markets
The midterm elections could mean a shift from unified Republican government to divided government.
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Higher Ground
Looking ahead, we expect the 10 year US treasury yield to move sideways through the remainder of 2026. We see some downward potential in 2027.
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Appetite for Destruction
After recent speeches by FOMC participants we change our Fed forecasts by adding a rate hike in December 2026.
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The Fed's Declaration of Independence
Today the FOMC unanimously decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps.
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