USD rates
The Fed's Declaration of Independence
Today the FOMC unanimously decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps.
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How to paint yourself into a corner
Yesterday’s CPI report was the last piece of the puzzle and made us change our call from zero rate hikes in 2026 to one and done.
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A Hawkish Version of No Forward Guidance
For a Chair who does not want to give forward guidance, Warsh was very effective in raising the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
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Bessent's Game of Chicken with the Bond Vigilantes
If the Treasury runs out of firepower and yields spike again, the Fed may feel compelled to step in and buy those bonds.
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Monthly Outlook: Groundhog Day Economics
The danger is not that we keep reliving the same day. It is that, eventually, the script changes.
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All talk and no hike
Today’s FOMC meeting was all talk and no action.
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