USD rates
A Hawkish Version of No Forward Guidance
For a Chair who does not want to give forward guidance, Warsh was very effective in raising the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
Research
Bessent's Game of Chicken with the Bond Vigilantes
If the Treasury runs out of firepower and yields spike again, the Fed may feel compelled to step in and buy those bonds.
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Monthly Outlook: Groundhog Day Economics
The danger is not that we keep reliving the same day. It is that, eventually, the script changes.
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All talk and no hike
Today’s FOMC meeting was all talk and no action.
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Talking about hikes
We expect this week’s FOMC “family fight” to center on rate hikes, but we do not expect the Committee to make a decision just yet.
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Trimming Inflation, Trimming the Fed
With the Fed’s new task force on inflation frameworks, we could see trimmed inflation measures gain increased prominence in monetary policy decision-making.
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